April 27, 1999

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: Mark Lagon, Council on Foreign Relations Fellow

SUBJECT: Taiwan

The Clinton Administration is meeting with defense officials from Taiwan this week to discuss arms purchases, including Taiwan’s request for two early warning radar systems: the Long Range Early Warning Phased Array Radar and the Evolved Advanced Combat System. These two systems would, respectively, provide warning of a missile attack by China and help Taiwan counter China’s efforts to establish air superiority in any campaign to seize control of the island. At the moment, key bureaus in the administration oppose selling Taiwan these systems.

Earlier this month, the Taiwan Relations Act reached its 20th anniversary, earning praise from both President Clinton and Congress, for guiding U.S. policy on cross-Strait affairs. At the heart of the act is the mandate that the U.S. should provide the defensive weapons systems Taiwan needs to protect itself from attack by China. A decision this week not to honor Taiwan's requests to buy these two radars manifestly would contradict that mandate.

It is clear the radars are needed in light of the accelerated missile deployments adjacent to Taiwan; China’s acquisition of high performance Russian fighters; and PRC statements about retaining the option to use force to reclaim Taiwan, a point reiterated by Prime Minister Zhu in his recent visit to the United States.

The 1999 Pentagon report to Congress on the cross-Strait balance makes clear that "Taiwan's military strategy will remain defensive. [But] its success in deterring potential Chinese aggression will be dependent on its continued acquisition of modern arms, technology and equipment." Refusing to sell Taiwan these two systems is to buy into the odd notion circulating within the administration that helping Taiwan defend itself is provocative. In the short term, Congress should carefully monitor this week’s talks. Given the administration’s predilections, however, more needs to be done. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms has recently introduced legislation which would enhance consultation with, and arms sales to, Taiwan. Such a measure would be an apt next step towards maintaining America’s commitment to support Taiwan’s defenses as required by the Taiwan Relations Act.