August 17,1999

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: GARY SCHMITT

SUBJECT: Taiwan and China

China's threat to use military force against Taiwan is no bluff. As an article by Ian Johnson in yesterday's Wall Street Journal observed: the concern that China could resort to force is "genuine" among Sinologists. They understand that if Beijing were to let "stand Taiwan's claim to be treated as a ‘state,' then it will have tacitly accepted a fundamental shift in the rivals' half-century-long relationship." Given the PRC's own public statements about the necessity of creating one "greater China," it is improbable that current leadership can ignore this challenge. Nor, as the following Weekly Standard editorial argues, should it be assumed that Beijing will wait before acting.

In this regard, it was good to see over the weekend so many of the GOP presidential candidates lay down the marker that, in Governor Bush's words, "we need to be very resolute about our position when it comes to Taiwan." Steve Forbes, Elizabeth Dole and Gary Bauer were most direct, stating that the United States should help defend Taiwan militarily if it were attacked by China. As Sen. John McCain and former Vice President Dan Quayle have pointed out, the Clinton Administration's current policy of "strategic ambiguity" is a recipe for miscalculation which no longer serves U.S. interests or principles.

We continue to believe however that the candidates need to do more on this issue than simply respond to the odd question put to them by reporters and hosts of Sunday talk shows. The United States faces a new strategic era in East Asia and the issue of our present policy toward Taiwan deserves a fuller explication by them.