February 22, 2000

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: GARY SCHMITT

SUBJECT: China

On Monday, China issued an ultimatum that Taiwan enter negotiations on reunification with the mainland or face armed attack. Coming on the heels of talks in Beijing between China's leaders and Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, what more striking evidence is needed to show that the current U.S. policy toward China is not working – and, indeed, is leading to a military confrontation sooner than later?

By any objective standard, the PRC has never enjoyed a more peaceful or less threatening security situation. China’s present hyper-nationalism, its new aggressiveness toward Taiwan, and its hostility toward the “Great Hegemon,” the United States, are of its own making. Continuing to appease the PRC in order to keep the process of engagement going, as the Clinton Administration has done, is feeding China's ambitions, not deterring them.

To begin to reverse this course, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott should insist that the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which passed overwhelmingly in the House earlier this month, be brought to the Senate floor for debate and a vote.* The conventional wisdom has been that a vote would upset U.S.-China relations and increase cross-strait tensions. This may well be true, at least for the short term. However, the stakes are far more serious now that China has issued its ultimatum. A failure to pass the measure soon would send an unmistakable signal that U.S. policy toward Taiwan can be dictated from Beijing and that there is no cost to China for its bellicose behavior.

* As a part of broader evaluation of current U.S. policy toward China, policymakers and lawmakers should make more of an effort to understand how Beijing views its security environment, not just how we want them to view it. In this connection, some of the more interesting recent works concerned with this topic include: Mark Stokes, China’s Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States (Strategic Studies Institute, 1999); Mark Burles and Abram N. Shulsky, Patterns in China’s Use of Force: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings (RAND, 2000); David Shambaugh, “China’s Military Views the World,” International Security (Winter 1999/2000); and Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment (NDU Press, 2000).