July 22, 1999

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: MARK LAGON, Council on Foreign Relations Fellow

SUBJECT: China

There have been a number of noteworthy developments in recent days regarding China in the areas of national security, human rights, and economic affairs.

• First, revelations in the Washington Times about China's transfer of missile technology and parts to North Korea call into question the Clinton Administration's repeated claim that China is assisting the United States in stemming arms proliferation and acting as partner in dealing with Pyongyang.

• Second, this month's crackdown on organizers of a Beijing sit-in by a religious sect in April is yet another reminder that China is not willing to tolerate freedom of expression and religion. It comes amid a spate of PRC government arrests of over 200 dissidents since May.

• Third, after the Administration touted China's holding the line on currency devaluation as a policy success of "engagement" during the Asian financial meltdown of the last two years, China is now strongly considering devaluation in the face of a mountain of bad loans and sinking economic performance.

The Clinton Administration should be sending a team to make clear its displeasure with Beijing in these areas. Instead, the administration has its top China hands, Kenneth Lieberthal and Stanley Roth, headed to Beijing to reassure China’s leaders about Taiwan and is busy disciplining Taiwan for President Lee’s statement that a free and democratic island should be treated like a state, not a "renegade province." The administration just scotched a trip to Taiwan by senior defense department officials and put on hold the sale of military systems for the island’s defense.

Next week, the House of Representatives is expected to vote on giving China access to the U.S. market under preferential tariff rates. Whether intended or not, if the House approves “normal trade relation”-status for China, it will only reinforce the administration’s ineffective policy of trading U.S. concessions for Chinese promises of cooperation and reform -- promises which remain unfulfilled.