November 15, 2000

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: THOMAS DONNELLY, Deputy Director

SUBJECT: China

Official government “white papers” are rarely revealing of anything but the blandest policy statements, but occasionally these documents reward close study. John Pomfret’s piece in this morning’s Washington Post (“U.S. Now a ‘Threat’ in China’s Eyes: Security and Taiwan Issues Lead to Talk of Showdown,” p. A1), comparing Beijing’s October defense report to its two predecessors, is the fruit of such diligence.

The article also places the white paper in its proper context. China’s military and national security journals have been describing the United States as a threat to Beijing’s desire to become the dominant power in East Asia for nearly a decade. But, as Pomfret makes clear, this semi-official point of view has now become official Chinese doctrine. The article also leaves no doubt that China considers its claim to Taiwan as the most immediate point of conflict and that China’s accelerating program of military modernization -- and, especially, its focus on developing fleets of ballistic and cruise missiles -- is aimed at creating the capability to deliver a devastating preemptive strike to the island.*

China’s hardening line poses a number of challenges to U.S. policy, which has yet to reckon with the emerging strategic competition with China and the difficulties of military operations in East Asia:

• The upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review should supplement its past focus on Iraq and North Korea by making the defense of Taiwan one of its central “major theater war” scenarios. Such an analysis should lead to significant changes in U.S. force posture.

• The new administration should undertake a review of Taiwan’s defense needs and Congress should pass the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act. Given Beijing’s ambitions toward Taiwan, it is increasingly important to bolster Taiwan’s ability to defend itself.

• The U.S. Government should build institutions, like the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University, devoted to understanding the implications of the rise of China. Pomfret’s piece is a reminder that we must consider honestly how the Chinese view America, not simply how we wish them to view us.

* See also, Bill Gertz’s recent series, “The China Threat,” November 13-15, Washington Times.