January 16, 2001

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: THOMAS DONNELLY, Deputy Director

SUBJECT: Gulf War Anniversary

Ten years ago today, General Norman Schwarzkopf unleashed what he described as “the thunder and lightning” of Operation Desert Storm. From a decade’s distance, this anniversary reminds us that the task of removing Saddam Hussein’s regime from power still remains and that our military means for achieving that goal are diminished.

The perspective of time also makes it clear that Saddam’s aggressive and repressive regime is the root of the Iraq problem. Until the regime is replaced, the problem will remain. Belatedly, the Clinton Administration appears to have recognized that. In finally releasing some aid to the Iraqi opposition, it has taken the first, small step toward ousting Saddam. Yet, to be serious, removing the regime will require far greater efforts; it would be feckless to encourage the Iraqi opposition without giving it the means to succeed. In fact, American credibility as the guarantor of Gulf security will be further eroded if this proves to be the limit of efforts to unseat Saddam.

Many in the incoming Bush Administration understand this challenge. In a May 1998 letter sponsored by the Project for the New American Century, Bush cabinet nominees Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Zoellick were among those who argued for the establishment of a provisional, free government in those areas of northern and southern Iraq not under Saddam’s control. Other likely Bush Administration officials, including Paul Wolfowitz and William Schneider, also joined in this statement, urging that U.S. and allied military forces support the Iraq opposition and “be prepared…to help remove Saddam from power.”

Unfortunately, the ability of U.S. forces to do this has eroded substantially over the past decade. While the Iraqi army might collapse even more rapidly than during the Gulf War, any similar operation -- and the extended operations that would follow any combat -- today would consume a far greater proportion of total American military strength. Building up U.S. armed forces is as essential is building up the Iraqi opposition. Both should be priorities if the new administration is to succeed in removing Saddam from power.