August 2, 2001

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: TOM DONNELLY, Deputy Executive Director

SUBJECT: Defense

Talking to a group of defense writers yesterday, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Ryan uttered an uncomfortable truth when he admitted that the United States -- indeed, the world -- is engaged in a military competition in space that soon may feature offensive weapons capable of attacking adversaries’ satellites and eventually even targets on earth.  While Ryan’s remarks sparked some predictable talk of “an arms race in space,” the fact is that space has been militarized for decades and control of space is fundamental to maintaining American military preeminence.

Even today U.S. forces depend on control of space for communications, intelligence, precision guidance of munitions and other important missions.  As the 1997 report of the National Defense Panel concluded, “Unrestricted use of space has become a major strategic interest of the United States.”  But with the mushrooming of commercial space activities (more than 1,100 companies in more than 50 countries are developing, building and operating space systems), the line between military and civilian space use is blurring.  America’s advantages in space are keys to our exercise of global power, but also create vulnerabilities our adversaries are anxious to exploit.  Space is fast becoming the “high seas” of the future, and “space power” the equivalent of the“sea power” that propelled first Great Britain and then the United States on the path to global leadership.  Control of the emerging “international commons” of space will do much to determine the future shape of international politics here on earth.

These challenges are well understood by the Defense Department and the Bush Administration more broadly.  Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld chaired a recent congressionally-mandated commission on the future of space, which recognized that “we know from history that every medium -- air, land and sea -- has seen conflict. Reality indicates that space will be no different.”  The panel also concluded that “given this virtual certainty, the [United States] must develop the means both to deter and to defend against hostile acts in and from space.”  And Ryan’s comments are surely a preview of a central tenet of the forthcoming Quadrennial Defense Review.  “Space war” may sound like science fiction, but it is a competition the United States must prepare to win, perhaps even to the point of creating a new branch of the armed services.  In space as on earth, we preserve the peace by maintaining our strength.