January 3, 2002

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: GARY SCHMITT

SUBJECT: Supercomputers

The White House announced yesterday it was easing restrictions on the export of supercomputers to “tier 3” states -- a group of states, including China and Pakistan, that have been judged to pose nuclear proliferation concerns. Under the new guidelines, U.S. manufacturers can now export supercomputers capable of running at 190,000 MTOPS (millions of theoretical operations per second), more than double the previous limit of 85,000 MTOPS.

Contrary to industry claims, this level of computing capability is not widely available in the world today. And it is a capability that could substantially shorten the time needed by our adversaries to develop new weapons, enhance current systems, and increase coding and de-coding capabilities. As former Reagan export-control official Stephen Byren said, it is clear that “the administration hasn’t done any serious analysis” of the national security implications of the decision.

What is especially worrisome is that this decision follows President Bush’s recent speech at the Citadel, in which he promised in the wake of the attacks of September 11 “to develop a comprehensive strategy on proliferation...and [to] toughen export controls.” At the time, the speech was taken as a sign that the Bush Administration would reverse the Clinton Administration’s policy of allowing domestic commercial interests to override national security concerns. Is the president’s decision yesterday a sign that it’s back to “business as usual” when it comes these issues?

At a minimum, when Congress reconvenes, the national security committees ought to look into the administration’s decision, and ask it to explain how it fits with the president’s stated determination to strengthen controls on exports that contribute to the proliferation of weapon capabilities that put at us and our allies at risk.