November 10, 1997

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: GARY SCHMITT

SUBJECT: Defense Reorganization and the Office of Net Assessment

I want to draw your attention to the following statement by Professor Stephen P. Rosen of Harvard University concerning Secretary of Defense Cohen’s plan to move the Office of Net Assessment from the policy arm of the Department of Defense to the National Defense University.

“The proposed reorganization of the Office of the Secretary of Defense announced today by Secretary of Defense Cohen will take the Office of Net Assessment and its director, Andrew Marshall, out of the Pentagon and bury it in the National Defense University. At a time when the Pentagon needs more than ever to develop new ideas, the reorganization sends into exile an office that has a proven ability to think creatively about national security.

“The office was created and Andrew Marshall was named its first director in 1973, and Marshall has been reappointed by every administration and Secretary of Defense since then. The accomplishments of the office are legion. In the 1970s, it produced the analyses of U.S. and Soviet military investment that compelled the Carter administration to reverse the decline in American military spending. It produced the analysis that moved the U.S. nuclear posture away from massive retaliation and towards a strategy that would better deter Soviet nuclear aggression. It was also the office that persistently called attention to the vast overestimates of the Soviet GNP that were put out by the CIA during the Cold War. It was the first to develop the idea that the American military can be transformed by the revolution in information technology. Every Secretary of Defense for twenty-five years, regardless of party, has kept Andrew Marshall close to him, because Marshall spoke truth to power.

“Secretary Cohen hopes to make the Defense Department more efficient, and we wish him well. But it would be a false economy to become more efficient at the old tasks of defense while losing the ability to decide what military innovations we may need to create. We hope that Secretary Cohen quickly reverses his decision.”

Stephen P. Rosen is Harvard University’s Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs.