April 30, 2001

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: GARY SCHMITT

SUBJECT: China & Taiwan

I want to draw your attention to comments made on China and Taiwan by Vice President Cheney last Friday night in an interview with Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC. His remarks have received little notice, but make clear that President Bush's statement about coming to the defense of Taiwan was no mistake. The vice president reiterated that the United States would "use force, if necessary to oppose" China should it use military force in an effort to bring Taiwan under its control. He then went on to say that the time for "ambiguity" on this matter had ended. Given "the increased threat level" posed by China towards Taiwan, "clarity...is important" so that the Chinese not "miscalculate" our own commitment to a peaceful resolution of dispute between the Taiwan and China.

Two years ago, in a letter sponsored by the Project and signed by a number of individuals who now hold senior positions in the Bush Administration, it was argued that "the time for strategic and moral 'ambiguity' with regard to Taiwan has passed" and that "the United States [should] make every effort to deter any form of Chinese intimidation of Taiwan" and "declare unambiguously that it will come to Taiwan's defense in the event of an attack or a blockade against Taiwan." As Robert Kagan argues in his Washington Post column today ("Bush's Straight Talk on China," p.A17) "the old China hands" will undoubtedly try and walk the president and vice president back from taking this position. But, "with a few words" they have put to rest a policy that no longer makes strategic or moral sense.

Finally, Vice president Cheney's remarks also linked together the recent incident between the Chinese fighter and our reconnaissance aircraft, "the more threatening posture" China has recently taken toward Taiwan, and the need to end the policy of ambiguity. In doing do, the vice president was indicating in a subtle but nevertheless firm fashion that China would pay a price for its behavior -- and the price is a new, clear commitment to defend Taiwan.