September 5, 2003

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: ELLEN BORK, Deputy Director

SUBJECT: East Asian Democracies

Two of America's allies in Asia are seeking a democratic mandate from their citizens to make changes with major strategic consequences.

Taiwan wants to submit nuclear power and other questions to a referendum. Experience with a referendum would prove important when a decision on Taiwan's future and the wishes of its people regarding a relationship with China can no longer be put off. Prime Minister Koizumi of Japan correctly seeks revision of the country's pacifist constitution which limits Japan's participation both in regional and global security. ("Constitution Key Poll Issue," Yomiuri Shimbun, August 27, 2003.) A new role for Japan in international affairs brings up questions about its imperial past. A change in Taiwan's circumstances is inevitable due both to the threat posed to Taiwan by China, and Taiwan's own democratic transformation.

These and other changes in the region require new strategic thinking. Unlike Europe, Asia does not have an alliance structure uniting democracies in a common purpose to guarantee the peace. Such an organization would be extremely useful to democratic allies that are, like Japan and Taiwan, making momentous changes. South Korea, for another example, would benefit from dealing with its immediate challenges in a broader, regional context, much as West Germany did by balancing its relations with the East against obligations and common values of the West.

It may not be possible or effective to continue making small adjustments to the old web of bilateral alliances the region has had since World War II. Nor do the existing multilateral organizations work particularly well, or advance the interests of the region's democracies and their ally, the United States.

The significance of the strategic changes underway in the region must not be overlooked. Nor should the way in which two of America's strongest democratic allies are going about them.