July 22, 2002

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: GARY SCHMITT

SUBJECT: Iraq

I’d like to draw your attention to two items: the lead story in the current issue of the Weekly Standard, “The Coming War with Saddam,” by Stephen F. Hayes and Project director Robert Kagan’s op-ed in Sunday’s Washington Post, “Iraq: The Day After.”

Hayes’ “The Coming War with Saddam” makes two important points: first, recent news reports suggesting the administration is backing away from a war with Iraq are wrong, according to administration sources; and second, the administration is slowly but confidently building the case for ties between Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden’s al Qaeda. Removing Hussein from power is no longer a question of if, but when.

In this connection, Kagan also makes two key points. The first is that Europe’s opposition to an American military operation against Iraq has all but disappeared. Second, what concerns our allies now is whether the Bush Administration has “a workable plan for a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq? And...does the United States itself plan on sticking around long enough to build a new Iraq that is reasonably stable, peaceful, and democratic?” As Kagan correctly notes, “whether a post-Hussein Iraq succeeds or fails will shape the course of Middle East politics, both now and for the remainder of the century.”