MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: DANIEL McKIVERGAN, Deputy Director

SUBJECT: Shevardnadze and Abbas: Broken Promises?

The United States has a lot on its plate right now: reconstructing Iraq, dealing with Iran and North Korea's nuclear weapons program, and, possibly, sending a larger contingent of troops into Liberia. So it wouldn't be a surprise if unfulfilled promises made to Washington by foreign leaders not directly concerned with these issues were not a top priority of American policymakers at the moment. But overlooking broken promises can be a problem, calling into question our willingness to insist that others abide by their word.

In this connection, I would like to draw attention to two recent promises made to the Bush Administration that, so far, have gone unfulfilled.

This past 4th of July weekend, former Secretary of State James Baker, at the behest of President Bush, traveled to Tbilisi with the task of: 1) making clear that the U.S. expects free and fair parliamentary elections to be held in Georgia this fall; and 2) securing an agreement with the government of Georgia that ensures that the election process will reflect the will of the Georgian people. Baker seemed to succeed. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze agreed to a plan that contained specific provisions that would safeguard the integrity of the election process. But just weeks after President Shevardnadze gave his word, the so-called Baker Plan is in trouble. This week the Shevardnadze-controlled parliament passed rules that, far from enforcing the Baker Plan, may actually undermine it.

In another region, not far from Georgia, a different leader, Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has failed to keep a very specific promise he made to President Bush at the Aqaba Summit in June. As a first step in signaling his seriousness about fighting and eliminating the terrorist organizations operating in Palestinian areas, Abbas agreed to shut down the tunnel network that funnels weapons from Egypt to Palestinian terrorists in Gaza. Despite the fact that the Gaza Strip is the one area over which PA Security Affairs Minister Mohammed Dahlan supposedly has control, there has been no real effort to cut the flow of arms.

Foreign leaders should not think that the U.S. administration is so distracted by current problems that it will let their failure to live up to clear commitments slip by. Doing otherwise is a sure recipe for creating larger problems down the road.