April 17, 2001

MEMORANDUM TO: OPINION LEADERS

FROM: Tom Donnelly, Deputy Executive Director

SUBJECT: Taiwan     

The Bush Administration will soon decide, pursuant to the Taiwan Relations Act, what arms to sell to Taiwan this year.  The sale should include Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with the Aegis radar system.  The Defense Department has recognized that Taiwan needs these ships, and American law requires that we fill that need.

    Over the past decade, the military balance across the Taiwan Strait has tilted in Beijing’s favor.  The primary purpose of the Chinese military build-up opposite Taiwan is not invasion. As the Defense Department reported last year, China’s goal is to make Taiwan vulnerable to a set of rapid strikes that would weaken its will to resist and would deter American intervention “in the hope of forcing apolitical resolution in Beijing’s favor.”  Such an attack would be based upon three areas in which the Chinese military enjoys advantages over Taiwan:

• Ballistic and cruise missiles.  China already has several hundred short-range ballistic missiles targeted at Taiwan.  Its missile force “is expected to grow substantially” according to a 1999 Pentagon report.  And it soon will include many more cruise missiles, giving Beijing an “overwhelming advantage in offensive missiles.”

• Modern strike aircraft.  China is also acquiring a substantial fleet of advanced Russian Su-27 and Su-30 strike aircraft.  Unless Taiwan upgrades its air defenses, says the Pentagon, “the balance of air power across the Taiwan Strait could begin to shift in China’s favor.” 

• Submarines.  China maintains what the Pentagon acknowledges as an “overwhelming” 65-to-4 advantage in submarines over Taiwan.  The Chinese navy’s numerical superiority is supplemented by a qualitative advantage as well. China has acquired quiet KILO-class diesel boats from Russia and is arming them with cruise missiles. “China’s submarine fleet,” reports the Defense Department, “will constitute a force capable of controlling the sea lanes and mining approaches around Taiwan.”

Although Taiwan needs other weapons and help in conducting sophisticated military operations, the Aegis system represents an important response to each of these growing threats. In the future, the Aegis could well provide the basis for missile defenses.  More important, its radar and battle-management system would provide Taiwan with a air defense command and control network robust enough to “ride out” an initial Chinese missile strike and fend off subsequent attacks.  Finally, the Arleigh Burke-class ships would greatly improve Taiwan's anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

Taiwan’s need for such capabilities is well understood by the U.S. Navy.  An assessment earlier this year by officers of the U.S. Pacific Fleet not only listed Aegis-equipped destroyers as one of Taiwan’s most pressing requirements, but recommended the sale of Kidd-class destroyers as a stopgap.  Though limited in their ability to track and engage multiple targets, the Kidds will help defend Taiwan until the Aegis arrives.

These needs are also well understood by the Chinese, who have repeatedly stated that U.S.-China relations would be harmed by the sale of Aegis and other advanced systems to Taiwan.  China fears that improved defenses would undercut its ability to threaten Taiwan militarily, and thereby to intimidate Taipei into accepting unification with the mainland.  In many ways, Beijing’s complaints are a measure of the need for the Aegis sale.

Some American critics of the sale will echo these complaints, arguing that providing Taiwan with the Aegis will be unnecessarily provocative, further destabilizing cross-Strait relations. But the truth is just the opposite. Selling the Aegis would help restore a proper military balance and stabilize a deteriorating security situation in the region.

Maintaining such a balance also was the premise behind the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. It recognized that a vulnerable Taiwan would encourage Chinese military aggressiveness. Accordingly, an Aegis sale is nothing less than fulfillment of our obligation under the law.

An Aegis sale also would send an important message about U.S. resolve.  Helping Taiwan, a fellow democracy and a true strategic partner, defend itself would reassure allies throughout the region and answer some of the questions raised by our letter of regrets for the recent incident over the South China Sea.